Sensitivity Analysis of COVID-19 Transmission Dynamics

Gauri Bhuju; Ganga Ram Phaijoo; Dil Bahadur Gurung

doi:10.46593/ijaera.2020.v06i04.001

Gauri Bhuju Department of Mathematics, Bhaktapur Multiple Campus, Bhaktapur, Nepal
Ganga Ram Phaijoo Department of Mathematics, School of Science, Kathmandu University, Dhulikhel, Nepal
Dil Bahadur Gurung Department of Mathematics, School of Science, Kathmandu University, Dhulikhel, Nepal

DOI: https://doi.org/10.46593/ijaera.2020.v06i04.001

Keywords: COVID-19, Compartmental Model, Stability, Sensitivity Analysis, Basic Reproduction Number.

Abstract

Corona Virus Disease (COVID-19) is an infectious disease caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome corona virus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The virus is spread between people during close contact via small droplets produced by coughing, sneezing, talking etc. In the present work, the transmission dynamics of the COVID- 19 is studied using SEIHR epidemic compartmental model. Basic reproduction number is computed with the help of the method of Next Generation Matrix. Stability of equilibrium points of the model is discussed. Sensitivity analysis of the model is performed to determine the relative importance of the model parameters. Simulations are made to illustrate the mathematical results graphically.